Real GDP is projected to grow 2.9% and 3.1%, respectively, for the 4th Quarter 2018 and all of 2019—this compares favorably to 2.2% in 2017. Unemployment is forecasted to remain below 4% through 2019. Existing home sales, while lower than the past two quarters, are thought to improve to $5.4 million in FY 2019. The housing market will face some headwind from rising mortgage rates and existing home sales prices.
Local trends year-to-date (through October 2018) in the Ponte Vedra Beach real estate market (data is for 32082 zip code) are also quite favorable. Sold listings are up year-over-year (2018 vs. 2017) by 13.3%, with the average sales price year-to-date of $802,368 versus $708,404 in 2017. The great majority of sale increases have occurred in homes priced above $500,000. The number of listings has remained relatively stable, with absorption rates falling since May to less than six months in September and October. Sold-to-list ratios did climb mid-year to almost 95% of asking price and are now back down to levels experienced between Nov 2017-Jan 2018 (92.5%).
Sales above $1 million are up 40.8% year-to-date versus 2017 and account for most of the 13.3% increase in average sales prices noted above (71 sales in 2017 versus 100 in 2018). Pending sales are up 38.8% (from 85 to 118), indicating that full-year results in the $1 million plus market will remain strong throughout this year and into the new year. The $1 million-plus market showed little growth in 2017 over 2016 so the strong showing in 2018 for the Ponte Vedra Beach area is even more notable.
Lisa Barton, the owner of Lisa Barton Team Ponte Vedra Beach - Keller Williams Realty Atlantic Partners, is a top real estate agent in Ponte Vedra Beach and the surrounding communities. Lisa specializes in luxury real estate sales, including gated communities, waterfront properties, and estate homes. A graduate from the University of Florida and George Mason University, Lisa currently resides in Marsh Landing with her husband.